Global growth is expected to slow down significantly in the coming months as borrowing levels dominate in both China and Europe and "Trump-mania" is set to fade, a chief economist at Danish investment firm Saxo Bank told CNBC on Monday.
"Our main global macro outlook still maintains that recession is more likely than not in the near future (12 to 18 months) based on the global credit impulse having peaked simultaneously with global inflation," Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, said.
In a recent note, Jakobsen explained that the biggest "perception-versus-reality gap" in the market currently remains this risk of recession. He added that his company is not predicting a recession, but that its economic model does indicate a significant slowdown as "the large credit impulse from China and Europe in the early part of 2016 has not reversed to negative", which it says should make the market conservative, risk averse push investors into U.S. fixed income.
"While the market at large sees less than a 10 percent chance of recession, we at Saxo – together with our friends at South Africa`s Nedbank – see more than a 60 percent chance," he added in the note.
Europe is seen as the main region driving global growth, according to Jakobsen, beating the U.S. in the second and third quarters of this year. Jakobsen is not alone in this thesis, with a number of investment houses recently upgrading their outlooks on European stocks as fears recede on the rise of populism and polls indicate that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is likely to do well at the upcoming French elections.
Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told CNBC Monday that European stocks "look pretty cheap" compared to U.S. stocks. "What you`re starting to see now is that underperformance of earnings that you`ve seen since the financial crisis is disappearing," he said. There`s been a fundamental acceleration in the euro zone economy, he also noted.
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