A big question also looms over the $80 billion in pending Chinese outbound deals, some of which don`t comply with new regulations on the kinds of acquisitions allowed. Real estate, for instance, is now on a restricted list of sectors along with entertainment, sports, and film studios. But property investments represent the biggest proportion of pending deals, accounting for 38 percent, according to Dealogic data.
If those fall apart, that`s not positive news for the global real estate industry. "It takes out a class of buyers that could potentially buy at higher prices," Tal said.
China`s overseas direct property investment has already fallen 82 percent in the first half of 2017. Analysts forecast the downward trend will continue, leading to a "material slowdown," with transaction volume and prices expected to come under pressure, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
It`s not all bearish news. Going forward, "some of the money that would have been deployed offshore could now be deployed onshore, and that could be a positive for the Chinese market," said Nicholas Holt, head of Asia Pacific research at real estate consultancy Knight Frank.
But here`s the catch: China`s domestic property market is historically volatile, and trying to control the real estate bubble has long vexed authorities. So that`s yet another way Beijing`s crackdown on overseas investment could lead to unintended consequences.
The government`s curbs have dramatically slowed outbound deals from China. They`re down 40 percent in the first six months of the year to $74 billion. But experts anticipate the tide to eventually turn as Chinese companies keep looking for ways to invest abroad.
"There`s been such a relaxation after the whole world was awash with Chinese money in these deals . [but] there is still a lot money sitting in China, and Asia in general, looking for diversification," Tal said.
"The reasons to get the money out are still there — when there`s a lot of money that needs to move, it finds a way.
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