Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition may retain its two-thirds parliamentary majority in Sunday’s general election, an NHK exit poll showed, bolstering his chances at becoming Japan’s longest-serving leader.
Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito are set to win between 281 and 336 seats of the 465 up for grabs, according to the public broadcaster. Opposition parties were set to split the rest, with the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party projected to come in second. Actual results are now being counted.
“I’m very grateful that the cabinet won the public’s confidence,” Toshihiro Nikai, the LDP’s secretary-general, said in a televised interview after the exit poll was released. “I’m happy. We should properly respond to this without lowering our guard.”
A large win for Abe’s coalition would pave the way for more ultra-easy monetary policy and flexible fiscal stimulus that has helped Asia’s second-biggest economy grow for six straight quarters. It would also give U. President Donald Trump a reliable partner in pushing a hardline stance against Kim Jong Un’s regime in North Korea.
The LDP is due to hold a leadership election next September. If Abe runs and wins again, he could stay on as prime minister until 2021.
Abe, 63, called the election last month more than a year before parliament’s term expired, saying he wanted to test public opinion on a proposal to divert some revenue from a planned sales-tax hike to fund education and delay moves to rein in Japan’s swollen public debt. The timing was also influenced by an uptick in his approval rating after a series of cronyism scandals hurt his popularity earlier in the year.
What’s at Stake in Japan’s Election?: QuickTake Q&A
A weakened opposition also looked set to help Abe. The Constitutional Democratic Party was set up only about two weeks ago by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano after its predecessor split up. Other opposition lawmakers defected to populist Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s upstart Party of Hope, which briefly jumped in opinion polls before fading.
“It’s a very tough result,” Koike said immediately after the exit poll was released in a televised interview from Paris, where she is attending a conference on climate change. “We have to analyze the reasons properly, but I am sorry that I caused unpleasant feelings through my words and actions.”
Already almost five years into the job, Abe has touted his economic record, with unemployment at less than 3 percent and the stock market at its highest level in more than two decades. The massive monetary easing has weakened the yen and bolstered exports while having less success at defeating deflation and boosting pay.
North Korea Threat
Abe also portrayed his party as best placed to defend Japan against the growing threat from North Korea’s missiles and nuclear bombs. His party is considering a proposal to allow Japan to have an offensive capability for the first time since World War II.
A two-thirds majority would make it easier for him to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, a move he sees as necessary to strengthen the military. Any change would also need to pass a public referendum, and recent polls show the public divided over the issue.
The ruling coalition currently controls 68 percent of seats in the lower house, including 288 for the LDP and 35 for its coalition partner Komeito, according to the parliamentary website. The total number of seats was cut to 465 from 475 in this election as part of a reform aimed at reducing the excessive weight given to rural votes.
— With assistance by Jason Clenfield, Takahiko Hyuga, Marika Katanuma, Hiroshi Miyazaki, and Yuki Furukawa.
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