The risk of a no-deal Brexit is playing on investors’ minds.
The European Union is likely to confirm this week that Brexit talks have not made sufficient progress to move onto discussions about a future trading relationship, though the U. will be hoping it will consider a two-year transition period. The pound rallied above $1.33 on that prospect last week, before a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel shot down the idea.
Markets are now eyeing December as the next important deadline to make progress in the divorce talks, with just over a year to go at that point until Britain leaves the bloc. While most currency strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News see some kind of agreement or transition as a base case scenario, the chance of not getting a deal is a significant risk.
Here’s a roundup of views on the likelihood of no deal and the potential sterling reaction:
Morgan Stanley
Mizuho Bank Ltd.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Nomura International Plc
Rabobank
ING Groep NV.
Dramelin
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