The European Union will publish a draft Brexit withdrawal treaty on Wednesday and it’s set to be explosive: it will ignore Theresa May’s recent requests to make the transition longer and risks prompting a domestic crisis over the sensitive issue of the Irish border.
There are still some holes to fill in, but the 100-page document will become the basis of the withdrawal deal that both sides want completed by the end of the year.
We will be following developments here in real time. Time stamps are London time.
Fox’s Turn: Top Minister Slams Customs Union (12:35 a.)
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox has been a long-time advocate of Brexit and his is one of five big speeches dubbed “Road to Brexit,” ahead of May saying her piece on Friday. He’s speaking in Bloomberg’s European headquarters in the financial district of London and his focus is in attacking Corbyn’s idea that a customs union is good for trade.
Hammond Emerges From Period of Relative Quiet (12:15 a.)
Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond caused quite a stir back in the U. with his January comments in Davos about a "modest” Brexit. Since then he’s kept a low profile and notably has not been among the top figures giving speeches on the topic in the lead-up to May’s big moment.
Today he emerged to take questions in Parliament and said that the approach to Brexit should be based on the evidence. Again, this has been a topic of some contention with pro-Brexit campaigners questioning the value of the Treasury research and suggesting it is biased.
Hammond, who represents the wing of the government that wants as little to change after Brexit, had this to say: “We should look for the evidence of value of our trade flows with Europe, what that generates in the U. in terms of jobs and we should look objectively at the opportunities that lie with third country trade and the likely profile of new jobs and new trade deals and new opportunities that can be created and we should weigh those carefully.”
And in case anyone wonders where he stands now on staying close to the EU: “It is the government’s intention to maintain the highest possible access for British businesses to European Union market.”
Trouble Brewing in May’s Beloved Wales (11:43 a.)
Meanwhile in Cardiff, the Labour-led Welsh government said it would draft a bill to allow EU regulations to carry on in Wales following Brexit if necessary. The move reflects the fact that so far the Westminster government hasn’t been able to satisfy the devolved administrations in the U. that they won’t grab powers when they return from Brussels.
Earlier Tuesday, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the BBC, “I will not sign up to something that effectively undermines the whole foundation on which devolution is built and no first minister, no Scottish government worth its salt, should do so.”
The rhetoric is a reminder that May is getting pressure on all sides.
May and Irish Leader Chat About the Border (11:35 a.m)
May and Leo Varadkar had a chat about the major sticking point in talks. Here is a readout released from May’s office:
She remains committed “to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland or between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom and to converting all of these commitments into legal text in the coming months.”
“The PM advised that she would say more on this future relationship in her speech on Friday.”
Macron Weighs in on Corbyn’s Brexit Pitch (10:26 a.)
From the Elysee Palace in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron gave some couched support to Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal that under a Labour government the U. would be part of a customs union. On Monday, the EU gave the idea some positive feedback.
He said it was an option before going on to spell out all the ways in which it’s not a great option. Remember Macron wants the EU to be even closer than what it is now so he’s usually the leader that comes down hardest on the U.
“Let me just say that a customs union would be the Turkish solution,” he said over the course of a news conference with the Norwegian prime minister. “It’s a possible option. But it has constraints. Let’s be clear that it’s not full access to the the single market. That’s the Norwegian solution, but that involves accepting the four freedoms and contributions to the budget. It’s very different to what exists between Turkey and the EU.”
Johnson Compares Irish Border to London Traffic (9:50 a. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson did nothing to dispel Irish concerns that the British government isn’t taking issues around Northern Ireland’s border seriously when he compared the problem to managing London’s road toll system.
Asked about how the government plans to avoid the return of border posts, which could inflame tensions in a part of the U. that was scarred by terrorism for decades in the 20th Century, Johnson told the BBC: “We think that we can have very efficient facilitation systems to make sure that there’s no need for a hard border, excessive checks at the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic.”
Then he went further, offering a comparison to the London congestion charge system, in which drivers pay to enter certain parts of the city. “There’s no border between Islington or Camden and Westminster, there’s no border between Camden and Westminster,” he said. “But when I was mayor of London we anaesthetically and invisibly took hundreds of millions of pounds from the accounts of people travelling between those two boroughs without any need for border checks whatever.”
Johnson also rejected the suggestion that the European Court of Justice might continue to oversee some issues in the U. “ That won’t happen,” he said. “That’s been expressly ruled out by the British people. We can’t remain subject to the ECJ.”
Earlier:
EU Said to Stoke Brexit Tensions With 100-Page Draft Exit DealWanted: Fairy Godmother for Brexit Success, Says Ex-Fox AdviserEU Is Said to Demand Indefinite ECJ Oversight After Brexit: FT
Coming Up:
Chancellor Philip Hammond takes questions in Parliament at 11:30 a.Trade Secretary Liam Fox speaks at Bloomberg at 12:15 p.EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier gives news conference at 12:30 p.
— With assistance by Kitty Donaldson.
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