As Buenos Aires goes to the polls for midterm elections, Maria Eugenia Vidal is everywhere -- except on the ballot.
Vidal is the province’s governor, a key ally of President Mauricio Macri, and the public face of a Senate campaign that’s turning into a referendum on his economic plans. It’s her picture that’s plastered across billboards in the industrial town of Hurlingham, just outside the Argentine capital; there’s barely a trace of Macri’s actual candidate. Vidal says the vote will decide “whether we continue with change or return to the past.”
That’s literally true in one sense. The opposition candidate in Buenos Aires is Macri’s predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner -- and her pitch to voters involves trashing the president’s efforts to cut subsidies and open up one of the most protectionist economies in the world. The clash between Argentina’s most powerful women could determine whether that agenda has a future.
“In some ways this has become a competition between Vidal and Cristina,” said Lorena Moscovich, a professor of social sciences at the University of San Martin in Buenos Aires.
If so, Fernandez won the initial round. In August’s primary vote, she scored the narrowest of victories over Esteban Bullrich, the candidate backed by Macri and Vidal. But there are signs of a swing since then, with the latest polls before the Oct. 22 ballot showing Bullrich between 2 and 4 percentage points ahead. Both candidates are likely to win seats in the multi-member constituency, and even a big swing won’t give Macri an outright majority in parliament, but there’s political capital to be gained by finishing first.
The ruling coalition’s campaign can point to an economy that’s gathering steam after a recession last year.7 percent in the second quarter was the fastest since Macri took office in 2015.
Popular Politician
Amplifying the feelgood factor is Vidal’s personal popularity. Her approval rating jumped to a record 59 percent in the latest Elypsis poll -- almost double the score for Fernandez.
Vidal’s rise to become Argentina’s most popular politician has been meteoric, and in some ways unlikely. She was Macri’s deputy mayor in Buenos Aires before pulling off an upset victory to become its first female governor.
She was only chosen as a candidate after more senior figures in Macri’s party shied away from the challenge of trying to reclaim a province run by Peronists of the Fernandez school for almost 30 years. It was like “sending her to the desert,” said Diego Gorgal, a former think-tank colleague.
But Vidal thrived. A middle-class background sets her apart from the fairly patrician crowd that surrounds Macri (including Bullrich, whose family owned an auction house which has been converted into an upscale Buenos Aires shopping mall). Her background in social-policy research, involving plenty of fieldwork, has made her comfortable on the stump in the gritty neighborhoods ringing the capital, said Mariel Fornoni, director of polling firm Management & Fit.
“The difference between her and other officials is that people believe her,” Fornoni said.
Raul Gregorutti is a believer. The 66-year-old mechanic from Hurlingham said he didn’t know much about the actual candidate, Bullrich, but “if the governor supports him then he must be qualified.” Gregorutti said he admires Vidal’s readiness to stand up to corrupt cops and drug traffickers. She had to relocate to a military compound soon after taking office, citing threatening behavior by two policemen.
Gregorutti gave economic reasons for backing the Macri ticket, too. The president is seeking to narrow a fiscal deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP by slashing subsidies for energy and public transport, but his program isn’t all austerity. He’s vowed to build new roads, railways and pipelines under a $15.5 billion infrastructure plan. Public services in Hurlingham are benefiting from the plan, according to Gregorutti. “We used to live with power cuts in the summer,” he said.
Crowd Magnet
Still, growth under Macri has been uneven. Job-heavy industrial sectors have been slowest to rebound, hurt by competition from imports. That provides ammunition to the Fernandez campaign -- especially in places like Hurlingham. The town is famous for an upscale sports club founded by 19th-century English immigrants, but it contains plenty of poorer neighborhoods.
In such communities, Argentina’s first elected female president can still draw the crowds. Fernandez and her late husband, who held the job immediately before her, have been accused of corruption and mismanagement, but they presided over an economy that mostly grew at a fairly rapid clip, at least until her second term.
Macri’s subsidy cuts have hurt small business, and his plans to change labor laws will eat into job security, Fernandez says. “They talk about how there used to be handouts,” she told an Oct. “Someone should tell the businessman-president that rights aren’t handed out, they’re practiced and recognized by the state.”
Such arguments may be swaying Hurlingham voters like Oscar Duarte, who said he cast his ballot for Macri two years ago -- and now regrets it.
Duarte lost the disability allowance he was entitled to under the Fernandez government, because of cardiovascular problems that have affected his ability to walk. He was given a pension instead. Since the cash payout was the same, he was happy with the arrangement at first. Then he discovered that he no longer qualifies for free travel and medication.
“I made a mistake,” said Duarte, sitting in his front yard. His family had given him a hard time for switching to Macri, and now, “my kids say: ‘You see, we told you so’.” He said he’ll be voting for Fernandez on Sunday.
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